Will Germany invade Italy for fourth UEFA spot?

The demise of Italian football could be rubber-stamped at the end of the forthcoming season.

Should the Serie A teams competing in European football fail to out-perform those of the Bundesliga, the fourth Champions League qualification spot will be stripped from them and awarded to the Germans.

The number of European places are determined by the UEFA League Coefficient. It ranks the leagues of Europe by the results of their teams in the Champions League and the Europa League (previously UEFA Cup) over the past five seasons.

Points awarded each season – two for a win, one for a draw – are divided by the number of teams that participated for that nation in that season. For the league coefficient the season's point totals for the last five seasons must be added up. In the preliminary rounds of both the Champions League and Europa League, the awarded points are halved.

Bonus points are allocated for: qualifying for the Champions League group phase and Europa League round of 16 (4 bonus points); Reaching the second round of the Champions League; and reaching the quarter, semi and final of both Champions League and Europa League.

Only three nations possess four Champions League spots - England, Spain and Italy. As it stands, Italy have 62.91 points. Germany are now trailing them by just under seven points, at 56.69.

Dropping out of the top three would serve as a huge embarrassment to the notoriously proud Italians.

The level of quality in Serie A has been questioned continuously over the past five or six years. The quality in Germany, however, has increased remarkably in the last couple of seasons.

The previous Bundesliga campaign proved surprisingly enticing. In a highly competitive year, Wolfsburg historically claimed the club’s first league title, trouncing Bayern Munich 5-1 on the way. The side boasted the most successful strikeforce in the league’s history. Bosnian hotshot Edin Dzeko and Brazilian Grafite racked up a 54 goal-haul – littered with outrageous efforts.

Serie A, in contrast, was won by Inter for a fourth consecutive season. Their closest competitors, Juventus and AC Milan, jointly finished ten points behind Mourinho’s side.

Since then, both the former World Player of the Year - Kaka - and the league’s top scorer - Inter’s Ibrahimovic - have left for Spain.

There is still hope for the Italians. The deal that saw Ibrahimovic’s departure to Barcelona has brought the explosive Samuel Eto’o to Serie A. The Bundesliga’s second-hottest talent (behind Franck Ribery), Diego, has left Germany in favour of Italian side Juventus.

Another ‘green shoot’ for Serie A is the intriguing incident that occurred on an AC Milan team-bonding session.

Club owner (and Italian PM) Silvio Berlusconi, is rumoured to have demanded jaded superstar Ronaldinho to stand on a table in front of his teammates and promise to ‘live right’ and rediscover the form that resulted him in becoming the biggest attraction in world football. A potentially patronising experience that is said to have emotionally-touched the Brazilian.

If the former great keeps his promise, Italian football might just be rescued.

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And the title goes to...

The dawning of another thrilling season of Barclays Premier League football is almost upon us. A season that is set to ask several key questions.

Will the loss of Ronaldo prove fatal to United's ambitions? Can Liverpool build on last season's challenge despite a lack of harmony among key players? Is Hughes able to gel a team of new arrivals into a serious threat? Will the traits that bore Ancellotti's success in Italy transcend in the Premiership? Is Arshavin the man to fire Arsenal to glory?

Manchester United have shown an ability to bounce back following the departure of a superstar. However, never under Ferguson has the world’s best player been stripped from his side. The void left will be detrimental to United. Antonio Valencia and Michael Owen will provide goals and creativity, but not as many or as much as Ronaldo mustered.

It will not only be the goals and creativity that will be missed. Ronaldo’s presence demoralised the opposition. They knew that regardless of how much they stifle United’s attack, he was capable of producing a moment of unstoppable magic to win a game.

United will challenge without him, however, a third place finish is not unforeseeable.

Liverpool are serious contenders. Much will depend on the availability of Gerrard and Torres. Starting alongside each other on only 12 occasions last season proved definitive. The two are irreplaceable. There is a lack of naturally gifted attackers in reserve at Anfield, perhaps because that would be their status – reserve.

The apparent disharmony shown by Mascherano and Alonso will bear an affect. Alonso appears set for a move to Real Madrid within the week. His subsequent replacement will prove pivotal to their challenge. Alonso was arguably Liverpool’s most consistent performer last season, controlling the pace and direction of play almost every time he pulled on the red jersey.

A top two finish is within their reach. And is expected on Merseyside.

The spending spree embarked upon by Manchester City signals the owner, Sheikh Mansour’s intent. Qualification for the Champions League is vital for boss Mark Hughes.

The signings have been plentiful in both number and ability. City will be an entirely different proposition next season. How Hughes will accommodate Adebeyor, Santa Cruz, Tevez, and Robinho will be intriguing to watch.

City have strengthened all over the pitch. I believe Toure will regain the form he showed earlier in his Arsenal career, prior to stagnating and arguing on and off the field with William Gallas. Should Lescott’s imminent arrival materialise, the club will boast a defensive partnership to rival the ‘big four’ – especially Arsenal’s.

City are an unknown entity, should the team gel...Arsenal will suffer. I cannot envisage the London club being able to fend off the challenge, and United may also prove susceptible to their city rivals.

Carlo Ancelotti could be the man who decides the league title’s destination.

He is a manager of undoubted ability. A master tactician able to boast an impressive haul of trophies. Should his affect prove as great as that imposed by Guus Hiddink, Chelsea will be those celebrating come May.

Chelsea possess a squad full of experience and ability. Their signings thus far have been uninspiring, the capture of the skilful Zhirkov being most notable. Although, Andrea Pirlo Looks increasingly likely to join him.

Paper talk has linked Chelsea with the sensational signings of Sergio Aguero and Franck Ribery. Should the talk hold more fact than fiction, they would be difficult to look past for title favourites.

Arsenal are in trouble.

The departures of Adebeyor and Toure to Man City may prove disastrous. Less so by their void from the side, more so by their strengthening of ‘big four’ rivals, City. The arrival of Vermaelen should fill the gap left by Toure, whether Wenger decides to ship in a replacement for Adebeyor remains to be seen.

The form of Arshavin is extremely promising. He will definitely enjoy a highly productive season, perhaps productive enough to maintain Arsenal’s status in the top four.

The promising youth starlets at the Emirates appear to be coming into fruition. I predict telling contributions from Aaron Ramsey and Jack wilshere; along with an improvement in Walcott’s game.

The Gooners will regard a top four finish as a successful season, and I’m not convinced their team will achieve it.

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