Will Germany invade Italy for fourth UEFA spot?

The demise of Italian football could be rubber-stamped at the end of the forthcoming season.

Should the Serie A teams competing in European football fail to out-perform those of the Bundesliga, the fourth Champions League qualification spot will be stripped from them and awarded to the Germans.

The number of European places are determined by the UEFA League Coefficient. It ranks the leagues of Europe by the results of their teams in the Champions League and the Europa League (previously UEFA Cup) over the past five seasons.

Points awarded each season – two for a win, one for a draw – are divided by the number of teams that participated for that nation in that season. For the league coefficient the season's point totals for the last five seasons must be added up. In the preliminary rounds of both the Champions League and Europa League, the awarded points are halved.

Bonus points are allocated for: qualifying for the Champions League group phase and Europa League round of 16 (4 bonus points); Reaching the second round of the Champions League; and reaching the quarter, semi and final of both Champions League and Europa League.

Only three nations possess four Champions League spots - England, Spain and Italy. As it stands, Italy have 62.91 points. Germany are now trailing them by just under seven points, at 56.69.

Dropping out of the top three would serve as a huge embarrassment to the notoriously proud Italians.

The level of quality in Serie A has been questioned continuously over the past five or six years. The quality in Germany, however, has increased remarkably in the last couple of seasons.

The previous Bundesliga campaign proved surprisingly enticing. In a highly competitive year, Wolfsburg historically claimed the club’s first league title, trouncing Bayern Munich 5-1 on the way. The side boasted the most successful strikeforce in the league’s history. Bosnian hotshot Edin Dzeko and Brazilian Grafite racked up a 54 goal-haul – littered with outrageous efforts.

Serie A, in contrast, was won by Inter for a fourth consecutive season. Their closest competitors, Juventus and AC Milan, jointly finished ten points behind Mourinho’s side.

Since then, both the former World Player of the Year - Kaka - and the league’s top scorer - Inter’s Ibrahimovic - have left for Spain.

There is still hope for the Italians. The deal that saw Ibrahimovic’s departure to Barcelona has brought the explosive Samuel Eto’o to Serie A. The Bundesliga’s second-hottest talent (behind Franck Ribery), Diego, has left Germany in favour of Italian side Juventus.

Another ‘green shoot’ for Serie A is the intriguing incident that occurred on an AC Milan team-bonding session.

Club owner (and Italian PM) Silvio Berlusconi, is rumoured to have demanded jaded superstar Ronaldinho to stand on a table in front of his teammates and promise to ‘live right’ and rediscover the form that resulted him in becoming the biggest attraction in world football. A potentially patronising experience that is said to have emotionally-touched the Brazilian.

If the former great keeps his promise, Italian football might just be rescued.

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And the title goes to...

The dawning of another thrilling season of Barclays Premier League football is almost upon us. A season that is set to ask several key questions.

Will the loss of Ronaldo prove fatal to United's ambitions? Can Liverpool build on last season's challenge despite a lack of harmony among key players? Is Hughes able to gel a team of new arrivals into a serious threat? Will the traits that bore Ancellotti's success in Italy transcend in the Premiership? Is Arshavin the man to fire Arsenal to glory?

Manchester United have shown an ability to bounce back following the departure of a superstar. However, never under Ferguson has the world’s best player been stripped from his side. The void left will be detrimental to United. Antonio Valencia and Michael Owen will provide goals and creativity, but not as many or as much as Ronaldo mustered.

It will not only be the goals and creativity that will be missed. Ronaldo’s presence demoralised the opposition. They knew that regardless of how much they stifle United’s attack, he was capable of producing a moment of unstoppable magic to win a game.

United will challenge without him, however, a third place finish is not unforeseeable.

Liverpool are serious contenders. Much will depend on the availability of Gerrard and Torres. Starting alongside each other on only 12 occasions last season proved definitive. The two are irreplaceable. There is a lack of naturally gifted attackers in reserve at Anfield, perhaps because that would be their status – reserve.

The apparent disharmony shown by Mascherano and Alonso will bear an affect. Alonso appears set for a move to Real Madrid within the week. His subsequent replacement will prove pivotal to their challenge. Alonso was arguably Liverpool’s most consistent performer last season, controlling the pace and direction of play almost every time he pulled on the red jersey.

A top two finish is within their reach. And is expected on Merseyside.

The spending spree embarked upon by Manchester City signals the owner, Sheikh Mansour’s intent. Qualification for the Champions League is vital for boss Mark Hughes.

The signings have been plentiful in both number and ability. City will be an entirely different proposition next season. How Hughes will accommodate Adebeyor, Santa Cruz, Tevez, and Robinho will be intriguing to watch.

City have strengthened all over the pitch. I believe Toure will regain the form he showed earlier in his Arsenal career, prior to stagnating and arguing on and off the field with William Gallas. Should Lescott’s imminent arrival materialise, the club will boast a defensive partnership to rival the ‘big four’ – especially Arsenal’s.

City are an unknown entity, should the team gel...Arsenal will suffer. I cannot envisage the London club being able to fend off the challenge, and United may also prove susceptible to their city rivals.

Carlo Ancelotti could be the man who decides the league title’s destination.

He is a manager of undoubted ability. A master tactician able to boast an impressive haul of trophies. Should his affect prove as great as that imposed by Guus Hiddink, Chelsea will be those celebrating come May.

Chelsea possess a squad full of experience and ability. Their signings thus far have been uninspiring, the capture of the skilful Zhirkov being most notable. Although, Andrea Pirlo Looks increasingly likely to join him.

Paper talk has linked Chelsea with the sensational signings of Sergio Aguero and Franck Ribery. Should the talk hold more fact than fiction, they would be difficult to look past for title favourites.

Arsenal are in trouble.

The departures of Adebeyor and Toure to Man City may prove disastrous. Less so by their void from the side, more so by their strengthening of ‘big four’ rivals, City. The arrival of Vermaelen should fill the gap left by Toure, whether Wenger decides to ship in a replacement for Adebeyor remains to be seen.

The form of Arshavin is extremely promising. He will definitely enjoy a highly productive season, perhaps productive enough to maintain Arsenal’s status in the top four.

The promising youth starlets at the Emirates appear to be coming into fruition. I predict telling contributions from Aaron Ramsey and Jack wilshere; along with an improvement in Walcott’s game.

The Gooners will regard a top four finish as a successful season, and I’m not convinced their team will achieve it.

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Ashley Young at Anfield?

I was salivating over the newspaper this morning and - for once - it was not a result of Jakki, 22, from Blackpool. 'Rafa Wants Young Gun' - read the headline.

According to reports, Liverpool are set to offer £20 million for Aston Villa's Ashley Young. This is unexpected music to my ears.

Unexpected as I had given up all hope of Rafa Benitez being permitted to sign the player that will complete the title-chasing jigsaw at Anfield. Martin O'Neill's reluctance to sell seemed to have proved a sufficient deterrent for any potential suitor. And, apparently, Liverpool are broke.

I would be overjoyed at the sight of Young weaving in, out and through defenders with the Liver bird emblazoned on his jersey. Having witnessed the majority of Villa's campaign last season, it seems whenever he is not creating goals, he is scoring them. I can only recall a couple of occasions - during a spell when the entire team was struggling for form - that he was unable to make an impact.

This is the player that Liverpool need. The side has a spine of world-class players, and while this is to every Liverpool fan's immense satisfaction, it does serve to highlight the gulf in ability in wide areas.

Kuyt, despite scoring some important goals and providing audacious work-rate, does not possess the ability to strike fear into his opponents. Riera proved fruitful during the start of the campaign but fell short with his end product on too many occasions. And Ryan Babel, for whom I still hold out hope, did not impress enough to earn a regular starting berth.

Benitez appears to be addressing these problems. The £17 million arrival of Glen Johnson will blend a perfect partnership on the right-hand side. Johnson's attacking prowess will be facilitated by Kuyt's constant back-tracking. Both players have defensive and attacking attributes that will complement almost perfectly.

Should Ashley Young complete a move to Anfield, Liverpool will pose another threat. A threat that will command the opposition's attention and respect. A threat that will allow more space for Gerrard and Torres. And a threat that is truly worthy of playing alongside them.

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Real talk

Real Madrid are sending shockwaves through European football.

They wrapped up the world-record £56 million purchase of Brazilian superstar Kaka only two days ago, yet they have already embarked on completing an £80 million deal to prise Cristiano Ronaldo away from Manchester United.

These are undoubtedly the two biggest transfer coups in football history and are soon to be followed by a third - Valencia's David Villa is set to arrive at the Santiago Bernabeu for the princely sum of £35 million with Alvaro Negredo going the other way.

Some are outraged at the money being splashed about by returning former club President Florentino Perez. I'm not.

FC Barcelona won the treble of La Liga title, Copa del Ray and Champions League in the most successful season in their history. They have done so playing beautiful, attacking football scoring more goals than ever before.

Real finished second in La Liga - their heaviest defeat being a 6-2 thrashing by Barca at home, exited early in the Copa del Ray, and were humiliated by Liverpool in the Champions League quarter final. They have to spend. They have to fight back against a supreme Barcelona. A team that look untouchable under a Pep Guardiola that has Catalonia running through his veins.

They are the two biggest clubs in the world. The rivalry between the two clubs is the biggest in football. When the teams meet in an 'el classico' it is watched by a global audience of hundreds of millions. Imagine the shame of that 6-2 defeat.

I cannot wait to witness another team of 'galacticos' attempt to reinstate the club as one of the greatest footballing institutions in the world. And attempt to regain the pride that was savaged so severely last season.

It will be 'una cosa bella'.

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Bench Lampard

England equalled their best World Cup qualifying campaign since 1966 by hitting Andorra for six tonight. However, the side in such great form should not be the one entering their inevitable first game in South Africa next summer.

Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard can not recreate their best form starting alongside each other. One of them has to be sacrificed for the sake of themselves and the team.

Gerrard should start. He is the better of the two and - if played centrally - can be the force that is required to bring home the World Cup.

There's no doubt about it, Fabio Capello has had the most success in facilitating the two in the same team. He has placed Gerrard on the left and allowed him to roam inside, but this is only down to Joe Cole's absence through injury. Cole starred on the left prior to rupturing a cruciate knee ligament and will be a clear option to start in next year's tournament.

For England to win the World Cup next summer they will need to field a balanced side that poses a serious threat on both wings. Theo Walcott - barring injury - is sure to start on the right and I believe there are two skillful contenders for the left, one being Cole, the other being Ashley Young.

If Gerrard is the focal point of the midfield and free to surge towards goal - he will replicate his exceptional form for Liverpool.

An England midfield starring an in-form Gerrard supported by lethal wingers and anchored by Barry will surely allow us our best chance of winning the World Cup since '66.

England are fortunate to be able to call upon two of the best midfielders in the world - and I do rate Lampard that highly - but the player with the greatest ability should start. This is how it works at club level. It should be how it works for the national side.

There is still a lack of competition for places as Capello insists on playing the best players - regardless of position - from the start. With Lampard on the bench, Gerrard will have to impress and will be ever aware of the threat to his position.

Should Gerrard fail to impose himself - Lampard will have the chance to change the game and prove he deserves to start.

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Ferguson gets it wrong

Tonight Alex Ferguson could have become the greatest manager of all time. Instead, he has been left more red-faced than usual.

He bottled it. His Manchester United are the only side in the world capable of matching Barcelona's attacking prowess and fluid football, yet Fergie omits the players that enables them to do so.

He left Berbatov out of his starting line-up in favour of a central Cristiano Ronaldo and a defensive Park that will spend the entire game tracking back. He also left Paul Scholes out of his starting line-up in favour of makeshift central midfielder Ryan Giggs.

Starting with Berbatov in the central striking role with Rooney and Ronaldo out on the flanks allows the front three to switch positions fluidly with a constant danger in all three areas of attack, and causes panic in the opposition defence - with them not knowing where or who their man is on the pitch.

Starting Park on the right, with the idea for the two wide attackers to track back throughout the game, shackles Rooney.

He is a threat on the left, but only provided he has the freedom to interchange positionally with the other front two.

I understand his rigid deployment on the left for an away game in a two-legged tie, but this is the pinnacle showpiece of club football - a game he should be free to display his brilliance.

I have nothing against Park, he is a good player and effective against lesser sides, but this is one of the best Barcelona teams of all-time (securing the treble of league, domestic cup, and European cup for the first time in their illustrious history).

The decision to leave Scholes on the bench baffled me.

In order for United to match Barcelona they needed a player in the centre to pass through their midfield as Barca did to them, and Scholes is the obvious choice. He plays quick one-touch passes until he sees an opening to supply a killer ball.

Giggs is not a central midfield player despite what people may think - not in the way that Scholes is - and was too often missing, not imposing himself in the center of the pitch .

Pep Guardiola, the young pretender in his first season of management, selected his strongest attacking side and played to win regardless (to some extent) of tactics. His, and historically Barcelona's, philosophy is to play beautiful football without fear; and that is the reason Barcelona are a footballing institution loved by so many.

Prior to the game I wanted Barca to win, but I wanted to see the two best teams in the world playing in the fearless attacking manner that has made them both champions.

Instead, only one showed courage and conviction...and they are now the champions of Europe.

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Newcastle lose relegation dogfight

It still hasn't sunk in. Newcastle United have been relegated.

It didn't happen overnight, it has been a slow demise - one which began the day Sir Bobby Robson was "relieved of his duties" and one that accelerated the day Mike Ashley's £134 million takeover was finalised.

Freddy Shepherd's decision to sack Bobby Robson in August 2004 was ill-advised, and inevitable following Shepherd's refusal to extend his contract just two months prior - the same month Newcastle had an official £20 million bid for Wayne Rooney turned down.

Although Robson failed to win any silverware during his tenure, he did lead the Tyneside outfit to two successive Champions League qualification finishes - his failure to make it three-in-a-row (only finishing Fifth!) being the catalyst of his sacking.

Since his departure, the club never looked like repeating such success.

Mike Ashley took over from Shephard in 2007 and his first decision was to sack Sam Allardyce after only eight months in charge in January 2008 - Newcastle were in 11th place in the table at the time of his sacking (Allardyce has since proved very successful, saving Blackburn Rovers from relegation this season with apparent ease).

Ashley then proceeded to run the club into the ground. Just days after appeasing fans with his decision to appoint Kevin Keegan as their new manager, he opted to hand Dennis Wise a powerful, wide-ranging executive position along with a reported £1.5 million-a-year salary.

This proved to be the worst decision he could have made. Wise's involvement in team transfers - resulting in the arrival of inadequate Spanish striker Xisco and the ineffective Ryan Taylor - infuriated Keegan and prompted his decision to quit.

From then on, Newcastle were in complete disarray. The bizarre decision to appoint Joe Kinnear as manager resulted in an alarming slump in form and a triple heart bypass for the man in charge. By the time Newcastle legend Shearer took over it appeared - and proved - impossible to save the club from the drop.

Oh, how different could it have been had they beaten Man Utd to the signing of potentially England's greatest ever player?

It shocks me that Newcastle will be playing in the Championship next season. During my time as a football fan Newcastle have always been a big club. A big club with big players.

Shearer, Beardsley, Ginola, Cole, Ferdinand; and those elasticated legs of Tino Asprilla!

They have given us two of the greatest Premier League games of all time, both resulting in thrilling 4-3 victories for Liverpool in '96 and '97.

A scintillating hat-trick for Asprilla in a famous 3-2 Champions League victory against Barcelona in '97.

And, not forgetting, that Ginola goal against Ferencvaros in their '96 Champions League campaign.

Newcastle have provided me with so much joy and entertainment in their recent history. And, for that, I am gutted they find themselves playing second-tier football for the first time in 16 years.

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